Meteorologists warn of colder than usual December-January, with La Niña expected to alter weather patterns across the subcontinent

India could face an unusually severe winter this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning that La Niña conditions are likely to emerge by December, intensifying cold waves across much of the country.

La Niña, the cooling phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), alters sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has far-reaching impacts on global weather systems. For India, it is often linked to colder-than-average winters.

According to the US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre, there is a 71 per cent probability of La Niña developing between October and December 2025. The likelihood dips to 54 per cent from December to February, though a La Niña watch will remain in effect.

IMD forecasts post monsoon shift:
In its latest ENSO bulletin, the IMD noted that the equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state at present, with neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevailing. Its Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, alongside other international models, indicates that neutral conditions will continue through the monsoon, with La Niña most likely to develop in the post-monsoon period.

“Our models indicate more than a 50 per cent chance of La Niña developing between October and December,” a senior IMD official said. “La Niña usually correlates with colder winters in India. Climate change’s warming effect may offset some of this, but La Niña years are consistently colder than neutral years. Overall, this year may not rank among the hottest, as monsoon rainfall has already moderated temperatures.”

Why It Matters:
India’s winter outlook carries broad economic and social implications. A harsher cold season could affect agricultural output, particularly rabi crops that depend on
stable winter conditions, while also driving up demand for energy in northern states. Cold waves disproportionately impact vulnerable populations, especially in rural and low-income urban areas with limited access to heating.

For businesses, severe winters can disrupt transport, supply chains and productivity, while also pushing up household energy consumption. At the same time, above-average snowfall in the Himalayas could improve water availability for the summer months, influencing hydropower generation and irrigation.

Meteorologists caution that climate change is amplifying the volatility of ENSO cycles, meaning India may see sharper swings between extreme heat and severe cold in the years to come.