By 2030, electric vehicles are predicted to capture a significant 62 per cent to 86 per cent of new vehicle sales, leading to the possible end of the era of combustion cars 

Based to a cutting-edge study by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), electric vehicles (EVs) are on course to take more than two-thirds of all car sales by 2030, representing a seismic change that promises to reshape the global automotive landscape.

Global sales of internal combustion vehicles (ICVs) have declined since reaching a record in 2017. Researchers predict that by 2030, there will be a tipping point where more automobiles are discarded than sold, and India is at the forefront of this trend.

India, which is widely seen as a rising force in the electric vehicle revolution, is speeding up its deployment at a rate that may soon challenge that of world leaders like China. India’s EV sales tripled in a year, from 0.4 per cent to 1.5 per cent, according to a new Systems Change Lab report; it took the rest of the globe three years to accomplish the same feat. As early as 2017, the cost of an EV in the nation would be the same as that of a comparable ICV if it keeps moving forward at this amazing rate.

Mei Aileen Lam of the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project at the University of Exeter attributes this  shift to the concerted policy action to phase out fossil-fuelled vehicles by 2035 across key markets. She argues that a surge on this scale could accelerate EV purchase-price parity, enabling a faster and more equitable transition.

Economics are driving this exponential rise more so than policy. The single most important cost element, battery prices, have been falling for years and are predicted to cut in half this decade, from USD 151 per kWh to between USD 60 and USD 90 per kWh. These declining costs will level the playing field by 2030, bringing EVs to the same level of affordability as conventional cars across all global markets.

It is anticipated that by 2030, electric vehicles would account for a substantial 62–86 per cent of new automobile sales, potentially signalling the end of the combustion engine era. According to the RMI analysis, the total number of combustion-engine vehicles in use will peak in the middle of this decade and begin to decline by 2030. Since internal combustion cars now make up 25 per cent  of the world’s oil demand, this paradigm change is expected to drastically reduce that demand.

China, a trailblazer in the EV race, is expected to dominate with a 90 per cent share of EV sales by 2030, fuelled by robust policy support. Last year, China sold more EVs than the rest of the world combined. China dominates the production of EVs, batteries, and other components, further driving down battery costs and making EV adoption easier worldwide.