As per a new UN synthesis report, the world needs to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 to limit global temperature rise, but current mitigation efforts are projected to only achieve a 2 per cent reduction. The report also states that while emissions will not increase after 2030, they are not decreasing rapidly enough to meet the necessary targets

To be within the ‘safe’ limit of global temperature rise, the world needs to cut 43 per cent of its emissions by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, a report by the UN synthesis on countries’ collective climate actions stated on Tuesday. It added that the emissions under the current mitigation target are projected to be only 2 per cent below those levels., reveals a new UN synthesis report on countries collective climate actions released on Tuesday. It highlights that peaking of global emission will, however, occur within this decade.

The synthesis report, released ahead of the upcoming UN climate conference(CO) in Dubai, also shows  that while emissions will not increase after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still ‘not demonstrating rapid downward trend”- a necessity of this decade to limit warming below the ‘danger’ level.

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe  drought, heat waves and rainfall, limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees celsius by the end of this century is considered to prevent this.

Despite efforts to curb climate change, the Earth’s global average surface temperature has already surpassed pre-industrial levels by approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius, with 2023 on track to become the warmest year on record. The latest report from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasises a concerning failure to adequately address the climate crisis. According to the report, current mitigation actions are insufficient, projecting a peak temperature for 2100 within the range of 2.1-2.8 degrees Celsius.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres underscores the urgency of the situation, stating that the world is significantly off course in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the threshold to avert catastrophic climate consequences. The synthesis report reveals that if the latest nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are enforced, global emissions will rise by approximately 8.8 per cent compared to 2010 levels. While a marginal improvement from the previous year’s projection of a 10.6 per cent increase by 2030, Guterres stresses the need for more substantial efforts.

Highlighting the substantial emission gap, Guterres urges for a paradigm shift in climate ambition at every level, calling for a “climate ambition supernova” in every country, city, and sector. The report underscores the inadequacy of existing national climate action plans to curb global temperature rise, prompting Guterres to advocate for an acceleration of ‘net-zero’ emission timelines. Developed countries are urged to approach the target by 2040, with emerging economies following suit by 2050.

These sobering findings from the report may set the tone for the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP), scheduled to take place from 30 November  to 12 December  in Dubai.