The report highlights that the immediate surge in coal production is primarily driven by India, followed by the Russian Federation, both of which are planning significant increases in coal production until 2030

A new report reveals that countries are planning to increase their fossil fuel production by approximately 110 percent more in 2030 than what is consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to either 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius.

This unsettling trend persists despite commitments from 151 countries to achieve net-zero emissions and recent forecasts indicating that global coal, oil, and gas demand will likely peak within the next decade even without the introduction of new policies.

The Production Gap Report 2023 meticulously tracks the disparity between governments’ intended fossil fuel production and the global production levels required to stay within the temperature limits set at 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius.

The report highlights that the immediate surge in coal production is primarily driven by India, followed by the Russian Federation, both of which are planning significant increases in coal production until 2030.

India, in particular, considers the coal industry of paramount importance for income generation and employment. Roughly one-fifth of India’s coal demand relies on imports, exposing the nation to price fluctuations in the international market and the potential loss of foreign exchange reserves.

The report underscores that humanity has already burned a considerable amount of fossil fuels, leading to a substantial increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, from 275 parts per million (ppm) before the industrial revolution to approximately 420 ppm today. This surge in CO2 levels intensifies heat retention and contributes to climate change.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in the report, emphasised, “We cannot address the climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: dependence on fossil fuels. COP28 must convey a clear message that the era of fossil fuels is drawing to a close and its decline is inevitable. We require credible commitments to ramp up renewable energy, phase out fossil fuels, and enhance energy efficiency, all while ensuring a fair and equitable transition.”

July 2023 marked the hottest month ever recorded and, according to scientists, likely the warmest in the past 120,000 years. Worldwide, deadly heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods are taking lives and jeopardising livelihoods. Global carbon dioxide emissions, with nearly 90 percent originating from fossil fuels, reached record highs in 2021–2022.

Powering economies with clean and efficient energy is the sole path to ending energy poverty and reducing emissions simultaneously. Commencing at COP28, nations must unite in support of a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil, and gas to mitigate the impending turbulence and benefit every individual on this planet.”

The report also highlights that government plans and projections would lead to a rise in global coal production until 2030 and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050.

It further reveals that the 20 major fossil fuel-producing countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE, the UK, and the US, continue to provide substantial policy and financial support for fossil fuel production.

This contradicts government commitments under the Paris Agreement and runs counter to the expectation that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak within this decade, even without new policies.

Despite major producer countries pledging to achieve net-zero emissions and initiating emissions reduction efforts in fossil fuel production, none have committed to reducing coal, oil, and gas production in line with the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the report.

Given the uncertainties and risks associated with carbon capture and storage, as well as carbon dioxide removal, the report recommends that countries strive for a nearly complete phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, along with a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by at least three-quarters by 2050 compared to 2020 levels.

(Inputs from PTI)