Early resilience spending delivers stronger returns than post-disaster aid, finds UK think tank

Investing in climate resilience before disasters strike can save lives and billions of dollars in developing countries, particularly among vulnerable communities and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), according to a new report by the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

The study, released on 14 October, finds that anticipatory action and pre-emptive investments in resilience far outperform traditional post-disaster relief in both economic and humanitarian terms. The evidence, drawn from 62 years of disaster data across eight countries, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Senegal, and Uganda demonstrates the clear cost advantage of early intervention.

According to the findings, existing social protection programmes offset just 2 per cent of total disaster losses, while humanitarian aid reduces losses by about 59 per cent. In contrast, anticipatory direct benefit transfers (DBTs) triggered by early warnings bring losses down to 42 per cent, and sustained resilience investments reduce them further to 27 per cent.

Building Resilience Before Crisis Strikes
The report underscores that climate change continues to erode development gains, deepen food insecurity, and heighten vulnerability among low-income populations. It recommends strengthening social protection systems and embedding anticipatory mechanisms within them to cushion communities before shocks occur.

A World Food Programme assessment cited in the study reinforces this point, noting that every dollar spent on anticipatory action before a disaster yields multiple times its value in saved lives and reduced recovery expenditure. Closer coordination between government agencies and humanitarian organisations, the IIED notes, can amplify these gains by improving resource allocation, reducing duplication, and enabling more timely responses.

With global climate risks intensifying, the study argues that investing early in resilience is not only a moral imperative but also an economically sound strategy for governments seeking to protect growth and livelihoods.