Byline: Dr M Muneer, Co-founder, Medici Institute for Innovation.

So here we are… Planet Earth is running a fever, the glaciers are in therapy, and the U.S. has just RSVP’d “maybe” to the apocalypse. As COP30 approaches, the world’s climate elite are gathering to fix the thermostat, while America, historically the world’s second-largest polluter, has decided to sit this one out. The irony is delicious: the country that once bullied others into sanctions for “non-cooperation” may now find itself the target of climate pushback. But amid this global melodrama, one question quietly simmers: what does all this mean for India Inc.?

The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and its absence from COP30 is a geopolitical earthquake. America’s climate inaction creates a leadership vacuum and a potential restructuring of the climate order. Global emissions are up 4.7 per cent since 2019, with U.S. emissions ticking up by 0.4 per cent last year. The UN warns that even with all current pledges, the world is heading for a meagre 10 per cent cut in emissions by 2035, when six times that is needed to stay under 1.5°C warming.

Without US accountability, Europe and the Global South are left to decide: do they shame, sanction, or simply sidestep the US? The answer matters deeply to Indian businesses because it could redraw the trade map, climate finance flows, and technology alliances that shape India’s growth trajectory.

Clearly, there is no “UN Climate Police.” No legal framework exists for punishing climate defaulters. But there’s talk of new creative mechanisms: from public “non-compliance registries” to trade conditionalities and carbon border taxes. If the EU leads a “Climate Leadership Alliance” that ties trade benefits to climate performance, the US could find its exports under green scrutiny. For India, this is both a risk and an opportunity.

The risk: India’s exports of steel, cement, and aluminium already face Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) scrutiny. If the EU extends such mechanisms to all non-compliant nations, and if India doesn’t keep pace with its green commitments, it could face higher trade barriers.

The opportunity: If the US is excluded from this emerging “green club,” India could step into its vacuum as a preferred trade and tech partner. Think of it as musical chairs, but with solar panels and hydrogen pipelines.

Money talks louder than methane. At COP29, the world pledged to mobilise USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for green transitions in developing economies. With the US sulking on the sidelines, the EU and multilateral lenders will seek new anchor partners to channel this finance through. India, with its scale, democratic credibility, and climate ambition, could become the new magnet for climate capital. 

The government’s green bond scheme, the National Hydrogen Mission, and the solar-led manufacturing push position it as a credible recipient of climate finance.

Expect to see EU–India co-financing structures and partnerships rise, particularly in green hydrogen, EV batteries, and sustainable infrastructure. Climate justice diplomacy could also work in India’s favour, framing it as both a victim and a responsible actor… a moral position that plays well in multilateral negotiations.

If COP30 decides to impose sanctions or isolate America morally, the resultant tech fragmentation is an opportunity for India Inc. Indian startups in climate tech have attracted over USD 1.8 billion in 2024, up 65 per cent from 2023. In carbon capture, grid digitisation, green manufacturing, etc., India Inc can partner with European financiers. Moreover, the geopolitical diversification of supply chains aligns perfectly with India’s “Make in India for the World” agenda. An EU-India green corridor could become the 2030s equivalent of what the US-China trade axis was in the 2000s.

The most immediate tremor will be the expansion of trade-linked carbon mechanisms. India’s exporters must brace for a new trade world where carbon efficiency is the new currency. The government could use this as leverage to accelerate domestic carbon markets and incentivise clean manufacturing. In a wry twist, US’ absence could actually make India more disciplined in its own green transition.

Diplomacy, like cinema, needs heroes. With Washington missing from the cast list, the world needs new protagonists. If India positions itself as the responsible Global South power, committed to both growth and green goals, it could redefine its global influence. Imagine this: India co-chairs a “Climate Leadership Alliance” with the EU, pledges enhanced NDCs, and sets up a joint transparency framework. That would put it in the moral driver’s seat, especially compared to an absentee America.

This augurs well for Indian businesses. For Indian conglomerates—from Tata to Adani to Mahindra—demonstrating green leadership abroad will strengthen market access, investor trust, and valuation narratives.

Of course, talk of “climate sanctions” against the US may sound poetic, but is diplomatically improbable. No nation wants to risk trade wars with the world’s largest economy. Yet, the mere threat of exclusion can reshape behaviour. Experts argue that reputational costs and financial conditionalities can achieve what outright sanctions cannot. India, with its balanced ties across the West and the Global South, could play a bridging role. In other words, India can be both the adult in the room and the opportunist at the buffet. Good for India Inc.

If the US won’t join the green revolution, the rest of the world might just recycle its leadership. COP-30 could mark the moment when climate diplomacy becomes multipolar, where power shifts from Washington to a constellation of responsible actors. This mandates Indian business leaders to plan new strategies for competitiveness.

For Indian businesses, this isn’t a crisis; it’s a stage. A chance to attract green capital, secure tech partnerships, and claim climate credibility that used to orbit around the U.S. Because when America’s moral Wi-Fi disconnects, someone still has to keep the lights on. And India, it seems, is perfectly positioned to power up—preferably with solar. Good times for Adani?

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication.)

The author is Co-founder and Chief Evangelist at the non-profit Medici Institute Foundation for Diversity and Innovation, and also the CEO of CustomerLab Solutions, a strategy execution and disruptive innovation consulting firm.