S&P Global Energy’s Horizons report flags surging datacentre load, SAF expansion and rising climate-related costs as energy systems enter a year of structural pressure

S&P Global Energy has released its Top Trends 2026 report outlining the developments set to shape clean energy technology, sustainability pathways and global energy markets in the year ahead. The assessment, produced by analysts from the company’s Horizons team, tracks shifts from macro energy expansion to asset-level dynamics.

“In 2026, AI’s surging power demand growth will be testing grid limits, revenue models and sustainability goals,” said Eduard Sala de Vedruna, Vice President and Head of Research, Horizons, S&P Global Energy. He said progress would depend on unlocking new capacity and flexibility, with grid modernisation emerging as a constraint on energy security and competitiveness.

Leanne Todd, Senior Vice President and Global Head of Horizons, said the interplay of AI-driven demand, grid bottlenecks, evolving procurement strategies and rising climate risks shows that energy expansion and sustainability are now “intertwined imperatives”.

AI Surge Tests Grids and Climate Targets
S&P Global Energy Horizons’ high-growth outlook shows global datacentre electricity demand rising 17 per cent in 2026 and 14 per cent annually through 2030, potentially exceeding 2,200 TWh—roughly equal to India’s current power consumption. The rise is straining grids and slowing decarbonisation progress, with 38 per cent of assessed companies operating datacentres lacking net-zero commitments.

Major technology firms, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta, are exploring new strategies to meet expanding energy needs without weakening climate targets. Aggregate US datacentre capital spending is projected to approach $500 billion in 2026.

SAF Capacity to Expand by One Third
Global dedicated sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity is expected to increase by about one third to eight million metric tonne in 2026, although the pace slows compared with the rapid expansion from 2022 to 2025.

More than half of global SAF capacity will be concentrated in Asia despite modest regional demand, as producers target a European aviation sector facing supply shortages. Beyond 2026, capacity could increase eightfold to 42 million metric tonne by 2030 if announced projects proceed, though only 7.3 million metric tonne have reached final investment decision.

Adaptation Moves to Centre Stage as Climate Hazards Rise
With emissions on a trajectory that could drive a 2.3°C temperature rise by 2040, escalating climate hazards pose mounting risks to infrastructure and operations. S&P Global Energy Horizons projects annual climate-related costs of about $885 billion for large publicly traded companies in the 2030s.

Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning show uneven uptake across sectors, leaving an evident adaptation gap even where risk management is more established. The report notes that the central question for 2026 is no longer whether companies will adapt, but how quickly they are prepared to respond.