To meet the 2°C temperature rise target, emissions must be reduced by at least 28 per cent compared to current scenarios

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report has  alarmed that the world is on course for a 2.5–2.9°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels unless countries exceed their 2030 climate pledges.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen, presenting the report, emphasised the urgent need to break free from the pattern of insufficient ambition and inadequate action in addressing climate change. She urged a shift towards setting records for cutting emissions, fostering green and just transitions, and boosting climate finance.

To meet the 2°C temperature rise target, emissions must be reduced by at least 28 per cent compared to current scenarios. Achieving the  1.5°C limit requires a 42 per cent reduction. Without substantial changes, emissions in 2030 are projected to be 22 gigatons higher than the 1.5°C limit allows—equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the United States, China, and the European Union.

Secretary-General António Guterres criticised a failure of leadership and a missed opportunity, urging leaders to phase out fossil fuels aligned with the 1.5°C limit. Guterres called for commitments to the Green Climate Fund and the new Loss and Damage Fund.

With the COP28 climate change conference approaching, the Global Stocktake will conclude and inform the next round of National Determined Contributions (NDCs). Global ambition in the new NDCs must align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. The report suggests that even with optimistic scenarios and meeting net-zero pledges, limiting warming to 1.5°C has a mere 14 per cent likelihood, with the G20 countries falling short of consistent emissions reduction.