Delayed monsoon and above-normal rains may affect farming, water supply and energy management

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a week-long delay in the onset of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM), primarily affecting southern states. Media reports indicate that the delay is linked to a stalled withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon, influenced by multiple weather systems over the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and troughs and cyclonic circulations across central and eastern India.

The NEM, which typically begins in mid october and continues until mid december, brings rainfall to southern subdivisions including Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka. According to media reports, the IMD expects above-normal NEM rainfall, likely exceeding 112 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

October rainfall is also expected to be above normal across much of India, with most regions experiencing below-normal maximum temperatures. However, areas such as the Northeast, Western Himalayas, and Saurashtra and Kutch are likely to record above-normal minimum temperatures.

The IMD has reported neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, with La Niña expected to develop post-monsoon. In India, El Niño typically correlates with reduced rainfall, while La Niña brings cooler weather and enhanced precipitation.

Media reports suggest that these developments may impact agriculture, water management, and energy planning in affected regions, highlighting the need for preparedness ahead of the NEM.