A study warns that rising sea levels and frequent tropical cyclones threaten critical mangrove ecosystems, jeopardizing coastal protection, carbon storage, and fisheries

A study by researchers from Switzerland and the United States has developed a global risk index for mangroves, mapping how rising sea levels and more frequent tropical cyclones could impact these vital ecosystems by 2100. Published in Communications Earth & Environment on 5 April 2025, the study highlights the growing threats to mangroves and the crucial ecosystem services they provide.

The index models three potential future climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions), SSP3-7.0 (medium-high emissions), and SSP5-8.5 (very high emissions)—to estimate the risk to mangroves under different levels of climate change. According to the results, over 56 per cent of the world’s mangroves could face high to severe risk by the end of the century in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5). Alarmingly, around 34 per cent of the most valuable mangroves—those that offer essential coastal protection, carbon storage, and support for fisheries—could experience irreversible damage, signaling a potential ‘regime shift’ where these ecosystems may not recover.

Mangroves are known for their ability to withstand storms and small changes in sea levels. However, the escalating impacts of climate change, including more intense storms and rising seas, are testing their limits. The most critical mangrove areas, which provide invaluable services like shielding coastlines, storing carbon, and supporting local fisheries, are also the most vulnerable to these climate threats.

The study emphasises that the combined impact of stronger storms and rising sea levels could create a dangerous feedback loop, where storms damage mangrove trees, and the subsequent land sinking, known as peat collapse, prevents mangroves from keeping pace with rising seas. This exacerbates the threats to both the ecosystems and the communities that rely on them.

With mangroves at risk of disappearing in many areas, the loss of these services could severely impact coastal protection, carbon storage, and fisheries, further intensifying the challenges posed by climate change. The study calls for urgent conservation efforts to protect mangroves, particularly in regions where their benefits are most needed.

The findings underscore the importance of incorporating climate hazards into conservation planning to safeguard the future of mangrove ecosystems and the people who depend on them.