Failure to act on UN Cop28 renewables deal risks overshooting 1.5°C target

Nearly two years after more than 130 countries pledged at the UN Cop28 summit in Dubai to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, a new report reveals that governments have done little to match ambition with action.

A report by UK based climate think tank Ember shows that just 22 countries, mostly in the European Union, have revised their national targets upwards. The global renewable energy ambition has risen by only 2 per cent since Cop28, despite the landmark pledge to hit 11,000 gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2030. Current trajectories put the world on track for 7,400GW falling significantly short of the goal.

“Tripling global renewables capacity by 2030 is the single biggest action this decade to stay on track for the 1.5°C climate pathway,” the report said. “Yet national targets remain largely unchanged and fall short of what is needed.”

The world’s largest energy consumers China, the United States and Russia have not updated their 2030 renewables targets. Together, they account for nearly half of annual global carbon emissions. While China’s upcoming five-year energy plan (2026–30) may still revise its ambitions, analysts are not optimistic about Washington or Moscow following suit.

India, meanwhile, has not revised its target since Cop28. But its goal of building 500GW of renewable capacity by 2030 already aligns well with the tripling target, Ember noted.

Among the few exceptions is Vietnam, which has pledged to raise capacity by 86GW. Brazil and Australia committed to 15GW and 18GW respectively. The UK also increased its target by 7GW, supporting its goal of a nearly carbon-free power system by 2030. South Korea expects to add 9GW.

The findings underscore the yawning gap between climate pledges and policy. Analysts warn that unless countries scale up rapidly, the world risks locking in fossil fuel dependence and missing the 1.5°C limit enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

The Cop28 renewables pledge was hailed as a breakthrough. But without urgent policy revisions, implementation and investments, it may end up as another hollow milestone in the climate action timeline.