A decade after the Paris Agreement, governments are still planning fossil fuel production at levels sharply out of step with international climate goals, according to a major new study

The 2025 Production Gap Report, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), finds that by 2030, countries intend to produce 120 per cent more coal, oil and gas than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77 per cent more than the 2°C pathway would permit.

The findings represent a widening of the so-called “production gap” identified in the last assessment in 2023, when governments were found to be planning 110 per cent more than the 1.5°C pathway and 69 per cent more than the 2°C pathway.

The report attributes the increase to expanded coal production plans to 2035, alongside higher projections for oil and gas output through to mid-century. In practice, it warns, such expansion would undermine the 2023 UAE Consensus agreed at COP28, in which governments recognised the need to transition away from fossil fuels and phase out inefficient subsidies.

“Ten years after Paris, renewables are way out in front of the pack. Instead of getting in the race, governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past,” said Neil Grant, co-author of the report and Senior Expert at Climate Analytics.

The analysis covers 20 major fossil-fuel-producing nations responsible for about 80 per cent of global output, including India, China, the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Seventeen of the 20 countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, and 11 now forecast higher output in 2030 than they had envisaged in 2023.

On the other hand, six of the countries assessed are aligning at least part of their fossil fuel plans with net zero targets, up from four two years ago.

“To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs rapid reductions in coal, oil and gas investments, redirecting resources toward an energy transition that prioritises equity and justice,” said Emily Ghosh, coordinating lead author and Director of SEI’s Equitable Transitions Programme.

The authors stress that unless governments commit by COP30 to halt new fossil fuel projects and accelerate investment in renewables, energy efficiency and demand management, the gap will only widen. Failure to act, they warn, will lock in emissions for decades and impose disproportionate costs on vulnerable populations.

Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, described the findings as both a warning and a guide. “Renewables will inevitably crowd out fossil fuels completely, but we need deliberate action now to close the gap on time. What we need is courage and solidarity to move forward at great speed with the just transition,” she said.