As per IPE Global – Esri India Study, eight out of ten districts are at risk of multiple rainfall extremes and 2.5 times increase in heatwave days projected

India is on track to become not just hotter – but significantly wetter – by 2030, warns a new study by IPE Global and Esri India. The independent climate risk analysis forecasts a 43 per cent rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events, alongside a 2.5-fold increase in the number of heatwave days across the country.

Released at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium, the study presents a first-of-its-kind district-level hazard mapping of combined heat and rainfall extremes and underlines an urgent call to climate-proof urban infrastructure, agriculture, and public health systems.

Metro Cities Face the Heat
Major urban centres such as Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are projected to witness twice as many heatwave days by 2030. Prolonged summer-like conditions are expected to trigger frequent, erratic rainfall events, with 80 per cent of Indian districts likely to be impacted by multiple extremes in the next five years.

“Climate change has exposed India to the double threat of extreme heat and rainfall. The situation is projected to grow harsher by 2030, with urban centres likely to face the worst impacts,” said Abinash Mohanty, Head – Climate Change and Sustainability, IPE Global.

Mohanty added that stronger El Nino and La Nina cycles are expected to further intensify floods, cyclones, storm surges, and lightning events, with 72 per cent of tier-1 and tier-2 cities at high risk.

The analysis reveals that India has already experienced a 15-fold rise in extreme heatwave days in the summer (March – September) period since 1993. Alarmingly, the last decade alone accounted for a 19-fold increase, signalling a steep acceleration in climate anomalies.

Coastal districts – both east and west – are showing signs of overlapping heat and rainfall extremes. By 2040, nearly 8 out of 10 coastal districts are expected to face extended summer discomfort, even during the traditional monsoon months.

To counter the compounding risks, the study proposes a climate risk observatory (CRO) for real-time and predictive climate assessments using Earth observation data and high-resolution models. It also recommends the creation of district-level ‘heat-risk champions’ within disaster management agencies to coordinate early response strategies and build localised heat resilience.

“Climate and development pathways are closely linked. The Global South, including India, faces a dual challenge – improving lives while adapting to rising climate volatility,” said Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director, IPE Global.

Land Use, Local Triggers, and the Urgency of Hyperlocal Data
The study warns of 63 per cent land-use and land-cover change in hotspot districts under business-as-usual scenarios. It attributes local climate disruptions to rapid urbanisation, deforestation, encroachments on wetlands and mangroves, and unregulated construction.

“Extreme weather is no longer rare – it’s our new normal. To respond, we need data-driven, geospatial tools that can map risks across economic, social and ecological domains,” said Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India.

GIS technology, the report notes, is already aiding national missions such as Parivesh, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Namami Gange, and can play a transformative role in climate-resilient urban planning, disaster preparedness, and risk communication.

As India prepares for its role at UNFCCC SB62 in Bonn, the findings position the country to lead the Global South in developing climate-smart governance and innovation frameworks that can be replicated globally.