Airlines face higher safety costs as clear-air turbulence intensifies over major routes, straining insurance and passenger preparedness

Aviation experts are warning of a sharp increase in clear-air turbulence, an invisible form of mid-flight instability that has surged 55 per cent since 1979, according to research from the University of Reading, United Kingdom. 

Unlike turbulence linked to storms, clear-air turbulence (Cat) forms in high-altitude jet streams and is not detectable by on-board radar. On North Atlantic flight paths, the study found that severe turbulence hours rose from 17.7 in 1979 to 27.4 in 2020. The trend has resulted in more diversions and dozens of annual injuries, highlighting a growing challenge for pilots and passengers alike.

Researchers attribute the rise to climate change, which is intensifying wind shear in jet streams. Global models forecast turbulence increases of 16 to 27 per cent in coming decades, affecting common cruising altitudes of about 10 km.

Airlines are likely to respond by altering flight paths, keeping seatbelt signs lit for longer, and suspending cabin services more frequently. However, turbulence prediction technology remains limited, underscoring the need for greater investment in research.

The financial impact is mounting as well. Medical costs, insurance claims and disruption expenses are rising, while fuel consumption may increase as aircraft divert around high-risk zones. The trend poses both safety and economic risks, making turbulence a growing concern for regulators, carriers and passengers as climate pressures reshape global aviation.