The latest report from the UNFCCC shows improved national pledges under the Paris Agreement, though current efforts remain short of pathways to 1.5°C

The latest update from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) indicates that global greenhouse gas emissions could fall by around 12 per cent by 2035 compared with 2019 levels, based on the most recent nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement.

The findings, drawn from an updated synthesis of 86 NDCs communicated by 113 Parties between January 2024 and 9 November 2025, reflect gradual progress but also highlight the widening gap between current commitments and the targets required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

According to the UNFCCC secretariat, the 2025 NDC synthesis incorporates the latest submissions covering 69 per cent of total global emissions in 2019. The report estimates total global emissions (including land use, land-use change and forestry) at 48.9 gigatonne of CO₂ equivalent in 2035, representing a 12 per cent reduction from 2019 levels. Excluding land-use factors, global emissions are projected at 49.4 gigatonne, or 7 per cent below 2019 levels.

The analysis shows that, for the 113 Parties that have submitted new or updated NDCs, emissions could decline by 10 to 14 per cent by 2035, depending on whether conditional and unconditional elements are fully implemented. These NDCs together represent a significant share of the world’s total emissions, with many developed and developing countries revising targets to reflect stronger mitigation ambitions.

Global Emissions Outlook Improves
Under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, each Party is required to communicate successive NDCs every five years, with the goal of enhancing clarity and transparency in national efforts. The synthesis report serves as a collective measure of progress and informs discussions at the upcoming Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA).

Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global emissions were projected to rise between 20 and 48 per cent by 2035. The current estimates therefore mark a notable shift in direction, though still insufficient to align with the emission trajectories necessary for the 1.5°C temperature goal.

The updated synthesis will be presented at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where Parties are expected to review collective progress and consider strategies for strengthening climate action before the next round of NDC submissions.