Researchers say North American herds are most at risk unless emissions are cut and conservation efforts ramped up

Reindeer, also known as caribou, could see their global populations decline by as much as 80 per cent by the end of this century due to climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Adelaide and the University of Copenhagen.

The international team of scientists reconstructed how reindeer responded to past climatic events over the last 21,000 years, using fossils, ancient DNA and computer models at unprecedented resolution. Their analysis revealed that while reindeer have survived major environmental shifts in the past, rapid climate warming consistently triggered steep population declines.

The study warns that the losses expected over the coming decades could surpass historical declines. North American caribou herds are projected to be the most vulnerable, facing dramatic reductions in both abundance and distribution if current warming trends continue.

“Our forecasts show that these North American caribou populations are most at risk from climate warming, with declines of up to 80 per cent likely by 2100 unless there are major cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and increased investment in wildlife management and conservation,” said Associate Professor Damien Fordham, Deputy Director of the Environment Institute at the University of Adelaide, who co-led the research.

The findings underline the urgency of emission reductions and targeted conservation strategies to safeguard reindeer, a keystone Arctic species vital to local ecosystems and Indigenous cultures.