Research links slowdown of Atlantic circulation to drought risk in Amazon and Africa, raising fears of irreversible rainforest collapse

Climate scientists have warned that the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could trigger catastrophic shifts in global rainfall, placing the Amazon rainforest and food security across regions at grave risk.

The AMOC, which regulates heat flows and rainfall patterns, is slowing at a concerning pace. New data suggest Amazon rainfall could fall by as much as 40 per cent, pushing vast tracts of rainforest towards collapse and possible transformation into savannah within decades. Scientists caution this would diminish the world’s largest carbon sink, accelerating global warming and destabilising rainfall cycles worldwide.

Satellite observations confirm that 2024 saw record destruction of the Amazon, with 67,000 square kilometres of rainforest lost, largely to fires fuelled by severe drought. Researchers note that the forest, once a reliable carbon absorber, may soon become a net carbon emitter. Such a shift would exacerbate climate change and intensify droughts in Africa, Central America and beyond.

Historical climate records indicate that earlier disruptions of the AMOC caused abrupt and widespread changes in global rainfall. Scientists fear that feedback loops involving fire, drought and deforestation could set in motion an irreversible chain of events, pushing rainforests beyond their tipping point.

The findings underscore that without urgent intervention, weakening ocean currents and escalating rainforest loss could entrench climate instability, placing both ecosystems and economies at risk.